Identifying Autocratizers with Ignacio Arana Araya
By Lindsay Marcellus
Reports that democracy around the world is decreasing to bring renewed urgency to better understand the causes of democratic backsliding. in 2025 and democratic erosion continues to be , rather than military coups. Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST) assistant professor Ignacio Arana Araya has found that personality traits can explain authoritarian behavior, and his research into Latin American presidents offers timely insights on political leadership and democracy around the world. In his new book, , Arana shows how overreaching leaders share individual characteristics that make them more likely to undermine democracy, thereby identifying a contributing factor to democratic erosion.
“The threat of tyranny and presidents behaving as monarchs has always been present in presidential systems,” notes Arana. (1) Yet when it comes to the drivers of autocratization, academic scholarship traditionally has focused on the impact of collective actors and impersonal processes, rather than the effects of individual leadership. While this traditional approach offers resources for responding to new challenges to democratic institutions, such as those posed by emerging technologies, Arana has noted the comparable lack of attention to how specific leaders undermine democracy. This oversight results in an incomplete, and potentially misleading, understanding of how and why countries experience democratic backsliding, with real-world implications. As he writes in his book, “If we do not know the traits of autocratizers, our chances of identifying them and learning how to stop them are drastically reduced.” (2)
One challenge was methodological: How could researchers quantify the impact of specific presidents given their low number in a given country? By building an original dataset that contains the biographical and psychometric data of over 300 presidents of countries in the Western Hemisphere from 1945 to 2021, Arana was able to identify specific characteristics that predict authoritarian behaviors. In particular, he found that dominant and politically inexperienced presidents were more likely to try to overstay their term in office, while risk-taking and assertive leaders were more likely to formally expand their executive powers. “Political leaders have been essential drivers of political change throughout human history, and their impact can be measured,” Arana said. (3)
Although his book focuses on presidents in Latin America, the theory Arana proposes can explain expansions of individual authority in other regions and by leaders from other political systems, such as prime ministers, general secretaries, chancellors, kings, emirs, sultans, and supreme leaders. His approach centered on individual leadership can also extend to subnational authorities, from governors and mayors to councilors.
A comparativist, Arana researches the effects of leaders’ individual differences on their executive policies and the impact of variation in political institutions, particularly in Latin America. He regularly teaches courses in comparative politics, Latin American politics, and research design for political science at 黑料正能量. In addition to his , Arana has created the World Leaders Database Project, which contains unique biographical information about the more than 1,800 heads of government who have governed countries around the world from 1970–2020. His has appeared in The American Journal of Political Science, The Journal of Politics, Political Psychology, Democratization, and more.
Today, as in the past, national political leaders actively undermine democratic norms and institutions across regimes and countries. Arana’s research offers the possibility of better identifying politicians who are more likely to become anti-democratic once in office—valuable information to voters deciding between candidates and a necessary precursor to developing rules to prevent or address such outcomes.
By bridging qualitative and quantitative approaches in American and Latin American presidential studies, Arana advances a new methodological strategy to research related to democracy, political elites, institutional change, and the nature of the presidency itself. In a field that traditionally has emphasized institutions and structural factors, Arana’s treatment of the individual characteristics of political leaders as independent variables demonstrates the effects of individual leadership on autocratization processes. “Quantifying the difference that leaders make is a disciplinary necessity,” argues Arana, adding that he hopes “the theory and findings inspire systematic research of influential individuals at every level of government.” (4)
Those interested in comparative politics, leadership, and political psychology are invited to join CMIST on Thursday, April 16, for a celebrating the release of Presidential Personalities and Constitutional Power Grabs in Latin America, 1945-2021 and its contribution to better understanding how political leaders wield their influence, transform institutions, and shift the path of their countries towards personalism, authoritarianism, and political instability.
(1) Ignacio Arana Araya, Presidential Personalities and Constitutional Power Grabs in Latin America, 1945-2021 (Oxford University Press, 2026), 164.
(2) Arana, Presidential Personalities, 2.
(3) Arana, Presidential Personalities, 164.
(4) Arana, Presidential Personalities, 165; 8.